2024 Tornado Season to Heavily Impact Texas, Oklahoma
Weeks after recovering from a multi-tornado outbreak, Oklahoma was dealt another windy blow when eight twisters were reported in the northeast of the state Monday night. While the widespread damage was extensive, Barnsdall and Bartlesville received the brunt end of the storm. At least one person was killed, and 30 to 40 homes were reportedly damaged as tornado sirens whistled throughout the night. Among the eight injured was a brave firefighter who risked his life responding to the duress calls in the storm-affected region. While only four tornadoes were confirmed, storm chasers say the number could increase as survey crews are now on the ground looking for ground impressions and sheared patterns on trees as evidence of confirmed touchdowns. Meteorologists say Midwestern folks should brace for a busy 2024 tornado season.
Tornado Alley in For a Chaotic Spring
Although Tornado Alley has been eerily quiet recently, meteorologists are forecasting an increase in tornado outbreaks. Colliding air masses from the North Pacific Oscillation and Pacific equatorial El Nino regions will increase tornadoes in 2024. Surging warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico will exacerbate already unstable conditions. Forecasters are also eyeing a mass of warm water off the coast of Japan that is migrating further east, bolstering tornado chances in the coming months. Unfortunately, the barrage of tornado warnings will become the new norm in Oklahoma, as nearly 100 twisters are forecast statewide. Nearby Texas can expect at least 150 confirmed touchdowns in 2024 while states further east might finally get a break from hellish tornadoes that have ravaged the region for the past several years.
A Perfect Storm on the Horizon
When forecasting the upcoming storm season, meteorologists are acutely aware of the significance of what is happening in the Pacific Ocean. Unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the NPO and Pacific equatorial regions are often a sign of impending disaster. These warmer sea surfaces fuel the jet stream and significantly influence future weather patterns for the continental United States. Typically, forecasters observe alternating cold and warm ocean temperatures from north to south. However, climate scientists have detected a deeply concerning trend that has only occurred twice in the past 30 years: both the NPO and equator regions returned warmer-than-average temperature ratings. The last time such conditions existed was in 1991 when a staggering 1,226 tornadoes were reported nationwide, including a rare EF5 twister that devastated Andover, Kansas. Will the 2024 tornado season be a repeat performance of 1992?
Forecasting the 2024 Tornado Season
Although anomalies in data can skew long-term weather modeling, meteorologists are expecting a busy storm season nationwide. Altogether, the United States is forecasted to see 1,207 tornadoes in 2024 – 15 percent above the national average. While the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Virginia, Tennessee, and Kentucky will see fewer tornadoes in 2024, Texas and Oklahoma could see a combined total of 240 tornadoes this season.
Below is a complete rundown for how many tornadoes each state can expect during the 2024 tornado season.
- Florida………65
- Louisiana…..55
- Alabama…….45
- Mississippi….54
- Arkansas……50
- Georgia………30
- So Carolina….20
- No. Carolina….20
- Virginia……..15
- Tennessee….25
- Kentucky……20
- Texas……….150
- New Mexico…25
- Oklahoma…..90
- Kansas………90
- Nebraska…..50
- Iowa………….50
- Missouri…….50
- Indiana………20
- Illinois………..50
- Ohio…………..10
- Michigan……..10
- Pennsylvania…10
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